This is the complete accumulation of our knowledge of the markets in LA. We don’t think there is a way for there to be any deviation in this current structure of trends in the market. There may be some changes or updates, but if you use these tools they will lead you in the right direction.
How to flip + TIME skins / mounts, and cosmetics in and out of the mari's store
Oftentimes it is unwise to buy into a cosmetic item upon release as new items have the highest level of value. As time goes on the value will decrease, as proof please look at omen skins and golden clouds as examples. The best time to buy in, is when these items have stabilized at a new low for a lengthy period of time OR my personal favourite is when it starts to trend upwards for either a reasonable amount of time (8-12 hours) or goes up 20% with high qty. Keep an eye out on different updates, or nerfs that could impact the value (aka the demand) for these items and try to either buy in or evacuate the trade dependant on the news. When do we sell? We sell when everyone is buying, so if an item has news that it will go up in value, like a buff, or if an item is being removed from the store like in the case of omen skins, you want to sell when market sentiments are showing increased demand.
In the case of omen skins, everyone started buying them a week after it was removed from the mari’s store with the road map that destroyer was coming out. After that roadmap was released we sold for 6k, doubled our money, and its stabilized at 6k for the last month or so.
Another thing to add is that there is a huge chance of being able to buy low and sell high, oftentimes the price of specific skins will in-fact be more expensive then the skin selection box.
Using monthly log-in rewards to generate profits
Daily rewards from the monthly log-in calendar have historically either decreased or increased the value of certain items. When solars are given for a log-in reward, naturally, the prices of solars go down, especially if this day also corresponds with something like a chaos gate day.
You can use these drops in demand to snipe cheap items on the marketplace. For example, Thursday they released honing book chests, and since it was paired with a Thursday honing book weekly reset, the price substantially dropped even further then it normally does, consider these 3 reasons for prices to drop on a Thursday for honing books (metallurgy, tailoring)
1. You get tradeable books from weekly dungeons/raids that reset on Thursday
2. The chicken wing event gives honing books
3. Daily log-in gives honing books
This increase of supply drops the value of these books and allows you to purchase them on the cheap for you to later sell them for more gold Tuesday/Wednesday, before the weekly reset when this trend repeats again.
Weekly flips and when / why they occur.
Weekly flip list
Conversions are still a thing, fish = carp
Weekly common fish flip (buy fish around 8-9 mornings, sell evenings typically)
Powder of sage weekly flip? Buy thursday friday (new rotation, still checking it out) sell monday-wednesday
Herb steak weekly rotation (high still, good chance it goes higher)
Honing book weekly rotation still valid
Chaos gate weeklies
CONSUMABLES FOR VALTAN g1/g2 + commodities for those consumables (destruction, corrosion, dark bombs, mushrooms, elemental potions, panacea, charms, timestop, adrophine, awakening)
Weekly busser flips, sell on thursday/friday/maybe saturday (splendid charms, splendid panacea)
Gvg flips ( clay bomb, gvg accessories [heavy armor, fortitude, strong will], sacred bombs)
Gem chest weeklies
Destruction and guardian stones weekly flip
Accessory weekly flip
Leapstone weeklies (hl/ghl/life)
Daily flips and even hourly flips
We believe that the major reasons behind commodities and consumables going down in value overnight is that the crafters buy a large chunk of materials off the market so they can craft before they go to bed, then the supply of these commodities repopulates during the night from either bots or players.
If you look at the data, most items are cheaper in the morning and as the day progresses they go up in value, not a rule, but a noticeable trend to investigate on certain items. Buy in the morning, sell at night for 10-15% profit as a general rule.
How to prepare for new classes being released to make gold (including gem flips/ accessories)
Dependant on what they release fo the new class (powerpasses, express event, material events) It is often wise to stock up on t1-t2 honing materials as since release these items have shot up at least 200% for every release between lows and peaks (see life leapstones 15g-38g, moons breaths 5- 25g).
Always consider supply and demand. When a new class releases there will be a large demand to get those characters to t3 BUT you must also consider these events and powerpasses as a quantifiable increase of supply. Obviously if you have a powerpass that skips t1 and t2, you will not see as much of an increase in price, due to that powerpass. Instead you will see market sentiments shift and actually drop the price of those items that you were looking to sell. Supply and Demand, consider all variables and factors before investing and make sure that you are on the pulse and watching ags release new content so you do not get caught holding the bag AND you're ready to purchase if the projected supply for these items are not found to have any basis in the newest updates.
For example, glavier release, the released the ark pass, express event AND the life shard crystal daily log-in reward which dropped the price 350% roughly on NA east. Again, Wednesday night the update was released, and if you didnt catch that update the night before, you lost 350% of your total assets in life shards. You need to make sure that you are aware of when updates come out from ags, and if youre not prepared to be on the pulse you can expect to lose a large portion of your investments if your not careful, trading around updates can be very dangerous if you don't pay attention to the newest information releases by the gaming company.
Accessories: When new classes come out they can require different engravings and stat lines for bis that are currently not use by any other class, if you buy these accessories that are bis for the new class, you can expect to buy them fairly cheaply before the class comes out and then make huge profits for when they are released and players have pushed their ilvls to then wear those accessories you purchased. Insane amount of gold to be made if you play it properly, a bit of risk if you dont understand the accessory market.
Gems: Always go up when new classes are released, every time. Look to either sell gems a week before release of class OR use your pass on the new character to then use silver to refacet your gems to make HUGE profits on selling t3 gems.
Gem Chests: Because gems are going up in value, youre going to see a huge increase in price on t3 gems chests 1-2 (in the case of destroyer without a powerpass we also saw a massive increase and fluctuation on t2 gem chests, something to be mindful of) Gem chests could be a great buy in for when a new class is released.
Skins If there is a certain desirable skin for that class, or a set of skins that people will want for that class you may see a huge spike we demand increasing the value of these skins across the board for new class releases.
Thoughts on gems / Accessories active market flipping
Accessories And Gems: You can actively scan the market for cheap accessories and repost them for a higher price, you can sometimes find diamonds in the rough, and get a 50k gold accessory for 5k-10kg, it's not easy, and it's pretty competitive but if you scan these markets while you are waiting or taking riffs you can sometimes find crazy deals. We have seen a level 10 cooldown gem sell for 1g, we wish were there for that. You can set up your advanced search options and just bounce through them to find accessories that are bis. The best times to do this are on weekly resets as that's when the majority of players are doing their abyssals/ legion raids / weekly guardian challenges which are where the majority of these items drop.
Another thing to do is place bids on valuable items that are running out of time, say there's an accessory for sale at 500g but is worth 5k, oftentimes late at night, you can find yourself being the only person bidding on these items that are about to expire. Great snipe potential there.
Consumables, commodities, and how they affect the market:
Commodities are what make consumables
Consumables are what you use when doing stuff in the game
Things make you use some consumables
Things make you use other consumables
Value of consumables goes up when demand is high (think destruction bombs, herb steak for valtan release)
Value of proxy commodities goes up in relation if qty can not be sustained at elevated levels of consumables (think mushrooms, meat correlating with destruction bombs/herb steaks).
As new content releases that will need other consumables to progress, you can expect to see these consumables go up in value in relation to the difficulty of said content and demand, also its important to buy the rumor and sell the news, we're buying sleep potions at 11g and they spiked to 18-20g during vykas roadmap release. Be ahead of the curve, sell it to the shift of market sentiment, and easy profits.
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